Smells Like Money: Mill Decisions and Social Security
12 years in a papermill and the decisions never got easier. Delay the inevitable or fix it now. Make an adjustment or ride the variability through to the other side. We always tried to collect as much data as possible yet the more information we gathered delay the decision.
The event the comes to the forefront of my mind was whether to change the shoe on our shoe press after we lost 2 sleeves in the exact same location in the same amount of time. The decision…change the shoe press and commit to a 36 hour outage that may or may not solve the problem or put on another $100k sleeve while we continue to assess the potential causes. I was full in on the change the shoe, to me we had no other options and nothing left to check. Some of the other experts felt differently so our conversation continued and did so for another 12 hours. We ultimately changed the shoe and wasted 12 hours discussing the decision. The fact is, we got the right people involved and had contingencies if our plan didn’t work. What we did was:
- Use the best information available right now, and
- Build a process that could adapt when new information arrived
While we may have been guessing, we made the best guess with the right people and the right information
Social Security works the same way
When people ask, “When should I take Social Security?” what they often mean is, “Can we know the perfect answer?”
But the truth is you have to decide without fully knowing:
- How long you’ll live
- What markets will do
- How taxes may change
- Whether you’ll work part-time later
- What future healthcare costs may look like
Waiting for perfect clarity can feel responsible, but it can also become a form of delay disguised as caution.
The goal isn’t perfection, it’s resilience!
In the mill, the best operators didn’t try to predict every fluctuation. They built a workflow that could tolerate change.
For Social Security planning, resilience often means:
- Understanding the trade-offs: Claiming earlier can provide income sooner; waiting can increase the monthly benefit.
- Coordinating with other income sources: Retirement accounts, pensions, and part-time work can change the math.
- Paying attention to taxes: The timing of Social Security can affect how other withdrawals are taxed.
- Planning as a household: For couples, survivor benefits and age differences can play an outsized role.
A practical way to decide
Here’s a framework I often suggest:
- Start with your “must-cover” expenses (housing, food, insurance).
- Identify your flexibility (travel, gifting, hobbies—what can shift if needed).
- Stress-test a few claiming ages (often 62, full retirement age, and 70).
- Choose a path you can live with emotionally, not just mathematically.
- Leave room to adjust other levers...spending, part-time work, or portfolio withdrawals if life changes.
The calm truth
You don’t need all the information to make a wise decision. You need a thoughtful process, clear priorities, and a plan that doesn’t fall apart if the future surprises you.
If you’re weighing Social Security timing, we can walk through the numbers—but just as importantly, we can talk through the season of life you’re in, and what kind of trade-offs feel worth it to you.